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Joseph Kaminski

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October 17, 2019

Super Tuesday Results

We’ve reached that pivotal part of this election year. Super Tuesday has come and gone. I did a little poll on Twitter asking if I should do one BIG post or 10-15 smaller posts, but I’ve decided to just lump it all into one medium post. There really isn’t an analysis here, one side is pretty clear and one side is still able to have a choice in later primaries.

Republicans Ala. Alaska Ark. Ga. Mass. Minn. Okla. Tenn. Tex. Vt. Va. total

Donald J. Trump

43% 34% 33% 39% 49% 21% 28% 39% 27% 33% 35% 285 (+203)

Ted Cruz

21 36 31 24 10 29 34 25 44 10 17 161 (+144)

Marco Rubio

19 15 25 25 18 37 26 21 18 19 32 87 (+71)

John Kasich

4 4 4 6 18 6 4 5 4 30 9 25 (+19)

Ben Carson

10 11 6 6 3 7 6 8 4 4 6 8 (+3)
1,237 to win
Democrats Ala. Ark. Colo. Ga. Mass. Minn. Okla. Tenn. Tex. Vt. Va.  Delegates*
Hillary Clinton 78% 66% 40% 71% 50% 38% 42% 66% 65% 14% 64% 544 (+453)

Bernie Sanders

19 30 59 28 49 62 52 32 33 86 35 349 (+284)
2,383 to win

*not counting super delegates.

Super Tuesday is mostly composed of conservative-based states. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia all have a Republican foundation, even on the moderate Democratic side. They also outweigh the benefits given off by more liberal and progressive states, such as Colorado, Minnesota, and especially Vermont.

Let me say this right now: Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. There is no stopping him at this point. The Republicans failed at their job. Considering his campaign a joke since the very beginning, they allocated few resources and little time into even researching him. He chants “Make America Great Again” but has his ties and hats made in China. He claims to be such a huge business success, yet all of his companies seem to go bankrupt — just like him. But guess what? Republican rivals didn’t do research on this stuff until it was too late. Now he’s unstoppable. He’s going to be the face of the crumbling, faction-based Republican Party. Could the Republicans end up being the 21st Century Whigs?

Cruz only won Texas, Mini Texas (Oklahoma), and Cold Texas (Alaska). He does not — and I repeat DOES NOT — have a chance when it comes to states that don’t have that Texas mindset of conservatism. Marco Rubio, the establishment sock-puppet, is trying to make a personality appear last moment. Too little, too late. Have fun in Minnesota when you lose in your home state of Florida. John Kasich is just waiting for a Rubio self-destruction, but it set to lose Ohio (his own political home state) to Donald Trump as well. Ben Carson is irrelevant.

On the Democratic side, it’s still too early to call. Most of the reported delegates given to Hillary Clinton so far are super delegates, basically “leaders” of the Democratic Party who are free to vote for whoever they want (and can change their vote at any time, especially if the popular vote sways in a different direction than they originally thought). Yes, I get the arguments that Obama did better than Clinton in 2008’s Super Tuesday. Yes, I get the arguments that Bernie Sanders only exists in this race to pull Hillary Clinton to the left. But, the biggest states are still to come.

If you take super delegates, which shouldn’t exist in my opinion, out of the picture…then the race is still pretty close. Hillary Clinton has taken several conservative states. It’ll take a political miracle, but there’s still a chance for success on both sides. At least the Democratic Party still holds onto the choice. Republicans are going to have to be happy with Donald Trump.

Yes, I personally Feel the Bern. But, as of right now, I don’t believe I’d help split the vote and ruin the party’s nomination entirely if my candidate doesn’t make it through the primaries. We still have several states to go. Trump, on the other hand, has taken this new age of politics and his own character into consideration. There’s no stopping the batshit crazy party from aligning behind the sociopath “billionaire”.

Oh, and Ben Carson, please drop out.

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2 Responses “Super Tuesday Results”

  1. March 2, 2016 at 11:19 am

    Sorry Joe, but I don’t see how Sanders has any conceivable path to the nomination at this point. Since the current primary/nomination systems of both parties were put in place in 1972, no candidate who has claimed a majority of Super Tuesday wins has ever failed to get the nomination. So right out of the gate we’re in a “never before in American history” type situation, and Sanders doesn’t strike me as a particularly likely candidate to shatter historical precedent. I don’t believe he should drop out–far from it–but I think both his and Hillary’s campaigns going forward need to begin preparing the ground for the inevitable conciliation between his supporters and hers, which I think will happen sooner rather than later. She has the nomination, but she would do well to begin thinking of Sanders as a running mate–not only her best choice but possibly her only one.

    • March 2, 2016 at 1:45 pm

      Regardless of who wins, I’ll be voting Democratic. I’ll still be holding onto hope until the very last moment before switching candidates.

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