Today’s the day, ladies and gentlemen! The first real primaries that actually show us a trend in national politics. The Iowa Caucus isn’t really a primary, it’s a Republican circle jerk for who is the most religious of them all. In 2008 Huckabee won, in 2012 Santorum won, and in 2016 Cruz won. So, yeah, we all know what happens to the people elected in Iowa on the Republican side: they don’t win. They’re usually Pastor-In-Chiefs who are “too religious” for a general election. On the Democratic side, on the other hand, Iowa seemed to give up. A literal tie that was solved with a coin flip (I guess money can buy anything in politics), we didn’t really learn anything.
So, today, we see the first real stepping stones for both sides. We can actually see more user-friendly data come from New Hampshire, a state that (like Iowa) the average voter can’t point out on a map (in short, geography isn’t America’s best subject, apparently).
So, what are my predictions, and (if you really want to go that far) my “endorsements”, for this New Hampshire primary? I’ll tell you who: they both already won the very first New Hampshire vote in Dixville Notch.
New Hampshire Prediction – Democrat:
Among Democrats in New Hampshire, Sanders currently has a 54 percent to 40 percent advantage over Clinton. He’s a political legend in most of New England, leading me to believe that he’ll win most of those northern-most states.
After narrowly losing Iowa by a few tenths of a percentage point and a fucking coin flip, I heavily believe Sanders can make New Hampshire his launching pad for success across New England and kick start national success in polls. Media will finally be forced to talk about him, and they won’t be able to stand behind a “But Hillary Won” sign.
While I admit some expectations may be too high, with some polls showing him as far ahead as 20 points, I heavily believe this could be the national momentum that breaks through the news blackout.
Clinton’s lead in the polls have been basically erased and eroded through debates and campaigning. This is a repeat of 2008 for her.
New Hampshire Prediction – Republican:
New Hampshire Republicans like establishment candidates. Let me say this again: New Hampshire Republicans like establishment candidates. Romney won in 2012, Bush won in 2008, McCain won in 2000, Buchanan won in 1996, Bush won in 1992 and 1988, Reagan won in 1984 and 1980, Ford won in 1976, Nixon won in 1972 and 1968. Do I need to go further? New Hampshire Republicans like establishment candidates.
The polls you see for the GOP in New Hampshire were taken before last Saturday’s Republican debate. Marco Rubio was seen as a strong candidate in New Hampshire before he melt down and short circuited in front of everyone. So, with that in mind, we might have seen a complete collapse of support for Robot Rubio. Last I checked, Kasich was only three points away from Rubio. This could surge in his favor. Jeb Bush really can’t come back after his entire flub of a campaign, and that really leaves Kasich as a favorable establishment candidate. Ironically, since the drop of Pataki, he’s also probably the most moderate of them all as well.
I really believe this terrible flop in the last debate hurt Rubio more than anyone wants to admit. He’s, in my opinion, a Vice Presidential bid for whoever wins the establishment vote in the late primaries.
Trump has already proven that he only wins polls and not actual votes. I don’t honestly believe Trump stands a chance, especially in a state that’s literally obsessed with establishment candidates on the Republican side.
Another prediction for the Republican side? At least one of these three will drop out after they fail horrendously in the Granite State: Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina. We might see Jeb suffer.
So yeah, that’s where I stand on the New Hampshire primaries. We’ll know what exactly happened after the last vote is closed at 8:00 PM EST tonight.